Facing the 2020 pandemic, the EU’s answer (Next Generation EU) arrived through a process of prolonged divisions between coalitions of member states. Namely, a group of countries from the north (the Frugal coalition) against the core of continental countries (the Solidarity coalition) and then a group of countries from the east (the Sovereignty coalition) against the previous two coalitions allied together. Based on the discursive institutionalism approach, the lecture reconstructs the policy discourse shared by the members of each coalition, coherently utilised along the fault lines which conceptually structured the 2020 policy-making process. Facing the 2022 Russian aggression of Ukraine, the EU’s answer (economic sanctions against Russia and transfer of lethal weapons to Ukraine) arrived again through divisions between member states, but not organised by the interstate coalitions that emerged two years before. The EU seems to be a territorially segmented political order, although the segments’ composition changes according to the nature of the crisis.
The effects of the war in Europe are propagating far and wide, adding to price pressures and exacerbating significant economic policy challenges. This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic. Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand imbalances and policy support during the pandemic, prompting a tightening of monetary policy. The latest lockdowns in China are causing new bottlenecks in global supply chains. In this context, while facing its tragic humanitarian and security impact, this lecture will analyse how Europe’s economic governance is dealing with slower economic growth and increased inflation in a fragmented world. Overall economic risks rise sharply, and fiscal versus monetary policy tradeoffs become even more challenging.
Sergio Fabbrini, Dean of the Political Science Department and Intesa Sanpaolo Chair on European Governance at the Luiss Guido Carli in Rome, and Arnaud Leconte, programme Director at CIFE will discuss the major political and economic challenges for European politics after the pandemic and the War in Ukraine.