CIFE Policy Papers 2024
On Disinformation: Why the EU Has Failed to Prevent the Rise of Euroscepticism in the 2024 European Parliament Elections and What Needs to Be Done Now, Johanna Koch
Abstract: Since the post-Maastricht era, the European Union has experienced a consistent rise in Euroscepticism within the European Parliament. The 2024 European Parliament elections marked another peak in the number of Eurosceptic parties, whose campaigns were fueled by anti-EU disinformation narratives. This highlights the EU's ongoing challenges in effectively countering Eurosceptic disinformation. Therefore, this paper evaluates the EU's measures against disinformation, examines their limitations, and proposes seven key recommendations to address not only the gaps in the EU's current strategy against disinformation but also the growing rise of Euroscepticism within the Union, considering both phenomena as interconnected issues.
Full Democracy in Poland Has Not Been Yet Restored, Ryszard Piasecki
Abstract: Poland's political landscape has undergone significant change since the 2023 election, with the ousting of the populist PiS government and the rise of a pro-European coalition led by Donald Tusk. Despite this victory, Poland's democracy remains under threat due to obstacles created by the outgoing PiS government, including a politicised judiciary and obstructive presidential vetoes. While the new government has made strides to restore the rule of law, challenges persist, particularly from the Catholic Church and conservative factions. The EU has unblocked recovery funds, but full democratic restoration in Poland will depend on future elections and institutional reforms. This situation serves as a cautionary tale for the EU regarding the risks posed by populism in member states.
The EU AI Act: The Impact on the Public Sector, Daan van Pinxteren
Abstract: The EU Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, effective from August 2024, is the world’s first comprehensive AI regulation, significantly impacting AI used in the public sector. It introduces a risk-based framework, categorising AI systems from minimal to high risk, with stringent compliance requirements for the latter. Public authorities face challenges in balancing the benefits of AI with the expected costs of compliance, particularly with regards to harnessing the risk framework and exceptions to the rules, fostering trustworthy AI and citizen trust and navigating expected enforcement. This in turn may ultimately require a reinvention of public AI strategies to strike an optimal balance between benefits and costs.
EU Defence Policy: From Crisis Management to Common Defence?, Kyriakos Revelas
Abstract: The end of the post-cold war European security architecture following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with doubts about the US commitment to NATO obligations, made territorial defence again a central preoccupation. This prompts the question of the EU security and defence policy shifting from crisis management to deterrence and defence. This paper examines whether such change is institutionally possible and explores the political conditions for common defence and the defence industry role.
Energy Poverty in Europe: Local Authorities as a Game Changer?, Rachel Guyet
Abstract: Energy poverty is a widespread phenomenon in Europe. If the EU and the member states have been strongly involved to mitigate the social consequences of the energy price crisis in the winter 2022-2023, local authorities are an essential resource for households exposed to energy poverty. However they are facing obstacles to making their action more effective. Despite the difficulties (some of them are examined in this paper), they are able to mobilise formal and informal networks to develop experimentations.
The Social Climate Fund as a Catalyst for the French Energy Poverty Strategy, Joren Schepers
Abstract: In 2023, the Social Climate Fund (SCF) was approved alongside the expansion of the Emission Trading System to the building and transport sector. The fund redistributes a part of the revenue made by this expansion with the aim of preventing the most vulnerable people from being exposed to transport and energy poverty as a result of the pricing policy. The SCF regulation sets out ambitious objectives, allocating a total budget of €86.7 billion from 2026 to 2032. By analysing France's existing policy on energy poverty and the alignment with the targets of the SCF, this research gives an insight into the fund's capacity and whether it can live up to the expectations.
Towards a Global Governance Barometer, Michel-Henry Bouchet and Alexandre Landi
Abstract: Although the concept of good governance has become the obligatory reference in academic round tables and meetings of international bodies or rating agencies, there is no consensus on its definition, content or measurement. Everyone defines governance according to their needs. Overall, country risk analysts, policymakers and field practitioners have no shortage of governance indicators, sometimes with a great deal of opacity and where digital sophistication gives the illusion of scientific content. We define governance as the robustness of institutions which help transforms economic growth into sustained and inclusive development. Clearly, fighting corruption is a crucial ingredient of governance, together with accountability, transparency and regulatory quality. To measure the level of governance in one hundred developing countries, a new composite indicator has been built, based on specific sub-indices of institutional quality, government efficiency and corruption. Its added value stems from an “expert assessment” that is based on seasoned country risk analysts, including professors and trained alumni from CIFE’s and Luiss’s Joint Master in Global Economic Governance and Policy Affairs. We hope this new “country governance gamut” will help draw the attention of policymakers and risk analysts to the quality of socio-economic management in too many rich countries with poor people.
A New Era or a Storm in a Tea Pot? South Africa After the ANC Lost Its Parliamentary Majority, Christian Manahl
Abstract: For the first time since the end of Apartheid, the African National Congress has lost the parliamentary majority and the country is entering a new era of coalition politics. Socio-economic constraints and the need to balance diverging interests between coalition partners will give the new executive limited leeway. In addition, it will have to juggle competing priorities of economic reform and fiscal consolidation on the one hand, and tackling unemployment and deep social inequalities on the other. The challenges are daunting, but South Africa’s fundamentals are solid, it is the continent’s biggest economy and it has strong democratic institutions. As long as the new coalition sticks together and focuses on the interests of the country, it requires and deserves the support of international partners for its efforts to lead South Africa onto a more promising socio-economic trajectory.
Past Legacies and Future Projections: The Implementation of the Rule of Law in EU Enlargement Policy, Arnisa Tepelija
Abstract: This paper explores the resurgence of the European Union enlargement policy amidst the geopolitical imperatives posed by Russia’s war on Ukraine through the lens of the rule of law. Central to the enlargement policy is the implementation of the rule of law, a core EU principle enshrined in its constitutional framework. Drawing from lessons learnt from previous enlargements, such as underscoring the necessity of robust rule of law criteria and the consistent use of pre-accession conditionality, this paper makes some future projections on what the immediate imperative is for the EU in the promotion of the rule of law and its implementation in candidate countries.
Nuclear Power - The Comeback of Nuclear Energy in the Global Energy Landscape, Ana Catarina Simões
Abstract: The journey towards recognising the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the global energy landscape has been marked by several key milestones since 2022. Notably, nuclear energy was included in both the RepowerEU plan and the COP 28 agreement. Subsequently, an inaugural Nuclear Energy Summit was convened. These developments underscore a collective shift in perspective, acknowledging nuclear power as an indispensable component of the energy transition. The Nuclear Energy Summit, a first-of-its-kind event held on 21 March 2024, further solidified this stance, bringing together governments, institutions, and stakeholders to deliberate on nuclear energy's potential.
Ukraine on the Way to EU Membership - The Famous 'Long, Rocky Road', Susann Heinecke-Kuhn
Abstract: After Ukraine applied for EU membership in March 2022 and was granted candidate status in December 2023, the negotiations over its EU accession are supposed to start in the course of this year. Despite the speedy first steps, Ukraine will have to undergo the same procedure of accession negotiations as any other EU candidate country. This paper looks into the particular challenges and risks of Ukraine’s EU accession and gives an outlook on the tasks lying ahead for both the EU and Ukraine.
La question catalane, Frédéric Lépine - in French
Abstract: Since the end of the 19th century, Catalonia has always resisted attempts at political and administrative centralisation in Spain. This policy paper note aims to present the historical context of this resistance, while describing in more detail the events that led to the Catalan independence process and its failure in 2017. It sheds light on the current situation, where a legislative agreement between the Spanish government and the Catalan parties could lead to a legal and political redefinition of Catalonia's autonomy.
Le défi du vieillissement démographique, Jean-Claude-Vérez - in French
Abstract: The world will undergo demographic (r)evolution between now and 2100 and, contrary to the Malthusian analysis, the challenge will be to cope not with demographic growth but with demographic ageing. This is already the case in some major countries, and we need to look at how this development will upset a number of macroeconomic and microeconomic balances.
The EU AI Act: State of Play and the Potential for Regulatory Globalisation, Aysenur Alma
Abstract: In her Policy Paper, Aysenur Alma gives an overview of the state of play of the upcoming EU AI Act within the legislative process. Since the Commission's proposal in April 2021, the proposal has undergone the ordinary legislative procedure. Last month, a provisional agreement was achieved in the trilogue negoations of the Parliament and the Council. Moreover, the final text has been sent to the member states. Thus, a final adoption is soon to be accomplished. The regulation is not only awaited within Europe but is also expected to have extra-territorial reach.
The EU Electricity Market Reform and the Protection of Consumers: A Move Towards a More Ambitious Approach?, Rachel Guyet
Abstract: The energy price crisis in the winter 2022-2023 acted as a wake-up call for the European institutions to reform the electricity market in order to stabilise the prices and shield consumers from price volatility. The provisional reform agreement concluded by the Council and the Parliament in December 2023 improves the protection of final consumers, including the vulnerable consumers and households exposed to energy poverty. This is a step in the right direction but more needs to be done to address inequalities in the access to affordable energy services for all.
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